Technical Outlook

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.

The previous Actual data was 202K. The forecasted data is 220K. The report is due Thursday, December 21, 2023, 19:00 GMT.

XAUUSD Technical Analysis:

XAUUSD recently had a significant move on 4 December. The price went up on Monday and came down with a high volume and volatility. The 50EMA is below the price, which still shows a bullish market. Overall, the price is still maintaining its bullish momentum.

The RSI line is at 55.57, which shows a slight overbought condition. The price currently trades between two major levels of $1977.19 & $2078.62. Drawing a bearish trend line, we could see the price touching it twice. If the price from here breaches the trend line and stays up, it will still have to break the resistance and the swing high for a valid BUY.

However, if the price does not break the trend line and comes down to the support and breaks it, it may continue its bearish pattern.

Pivot Points: XAUUSD

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories

The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. The level of inventories influences the price of petroleum products, which can have an impact on inflation.

If the increase in crude inventories is more than expected, it implies weaker demand and is bearish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is less than expected.

If the increase in crude is less than expected, it implies greater demand and is bullish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is more than expected.

The previous Actual data was -4.259M. The forecasted data is -0.650M. The report is due Wednesday, December 20, 2023, 21:00 GMT.

WTI Technical Analysis:

WTI is in a downtrend, trading inside a bearish channel, forming lower highs and lows. The 50EMA is trading above the price, validating the downtrend.

The RSI Bullish Divergence could be seen, signaling the price may reverse from the current point.

The market is trading between two regions, $68.653 and $72.825, which is the current support & resistance.

If the price breaks above the resistance and the most recent lower high stays above it for a while, It may form a break and retest pattern, which will be a good buying opportunity. However, if the price does not break above the resistance, it may break its support and lower low, giving the traders a selling opportunity.

Pivot Points: WTI

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