Technical Outlook

-AUD/USD trades below key EMA and resistance levels, with potential for gains if surpassed, while identified support levels are present if it resumes downward trend.

-GBP/USD experiences low volatility, facing resistance at the EMA, suggesting potential for sideways or downward movement.

US (USD): U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

The previous reading was 3.4% better than the expected 3.2%. The next report is due on February 13, 2024 at 13:30 GMT. Its forecast stands at 2.9%.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis:

The Australian Dollar is trading around 0.6520, standing just below its first significant barrier – the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6530, and also below a crucial resistance zone at 0.6550.

If the AUD/USD pair manages to overcome the crucial resistance, it might lead to further ascent and the targets would be the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and then the significant psychological barrier at 0.6600. 

Conversely, on the downward scale, the immediate support is expected at the psychological level of 0.6500. This can lead to a retreat to the previous week’s low and an important support area at 0.6450.

Pivot Points: AUDUSD

UK (GBP): U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

The previous reading came out to be 4.0% better than the expected 3.8%. The next report is due on February 14, 2024 at 07:00 GMT. Its forecast stands at 4.1%.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis:

The GBP/USD pair has been trading in a narrow range between 1.2570 and 1.2650 for the last few sessions with decreased volatility as it approaches the key economic events. The 50-day EMA at about 1.2630 has provided a major obstacle for any bullish advances of the Pound Sterling.

Also, previously the pair tried to dip below but could not stay below the 200-day simple MA for any significant amount of time.

Now, facing a strong resistance ahead, we might see the pair either move sideways or dip lower in the coming week. The 14-period RSI, ranging between 40.00 to 60.00, also points to the continuation of consolidation. In essence, the GBP/USD’s outlook remains bearish as long as it trades below the key EMA level.

Pivot Points: GBPUSD

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